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FREE FULL CARD SELECTIONS & ANALYSIS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS 2-9 BY LIGHTNING JAY

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  • FREE FULL CARD SELECTIONS & ANALYSIS FOR TAMPA BAY DOWNS 2-9 BY LIGHTNING JAY

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    TAMPA BAY DOWNS – Saturday, February 9, 2019
    Selections & Analysis by @LightningJay_

    (All selections are made for FAST and FIRM. Follow me on Twitter for updates after scratches.)

    RACE 1
    5 – NED DIVINE (5/1) – Won here at this distance & condition last April from off the pace even after breaking through the gate! Faced better at GP in subsequent starts and was given time off. Returned for Rodriquez (26%) and finished a solid 4th out of 11 runners. Adds blinkers and shows a solid work for this.
    7 – CRACKIN JON (6/1) – Better early speed figures than the other stretch-out horse (3). Other than that, not a lot of speed signed on for the opener. Could go a long way on the front end.
    9 – AMBERJACK (3/1) – Not sure what happened last time, but I’m willing to overlook that last race as hard-hitting 9yo has shown the ability to bounce back after such efforts.
    5 – 7 – 9 – 8

    RACE 2
    2 – TAKE THE OVER (5/2) – Turns back from turf route and drops to lowest level for solid connections. Nothing else in here has shown enough stamina other than the top 2 choices. Logical selection should have no excuses today.
    10 – TURKO TREAT (4/1) – Closed up nicely in debut earning a solid number for Bennett. You do have to be careful as this is a quick return off a debut that she was obviously aimed for. Drops in class but you should get by in your multi race wagers with the top 2.
    5 – CAPTURED BEAUTY (6/1) – Has shown solid speed in both starts. Takes big drop into the claiming ranks. Let’s see what she can do on a fast track.
    2 – 10 – 5 – 11

    RACE 3
    1 – MIND BOTTLING (9/2) – Tepid choice in a real head-scratcher. May have bounced last time but has the right to move forward today. Go as deep as your budget allows.
    11 – PEAS AND CARROTS (5/2) – Definitely in over his head after a solid maiden score. Fits against these but must overcome a wide post.
    4 – R POINT MADE (8/1) – Broke his maiden here in front-running fashion and may fire first off the bench.
    1 – 11 – 4 – 3 – 9

    RACE 4
    ($) 2 – SHEDANCESFORFATE (15/1) – Loved the debut when sprinting on the turf. Worked well from the gate recently and offers plenty of value today.
    6 – COOL MO (4/1) – Cannot dismiss that work tab for top connections. Adds lasix for debut.
    5 – ZEE DROP (5/1) – Clement and Camacho offer little value at Tampa, but as hot as Christophe has been, he’s only 14% with first time 3yo’s. Dam was fast early so I can’t totslly dismiss.
    2 – 6 – 5 – 11 – 3

    RACE 5
    2 – TABIA (3/1) – They paid $650k for this son of Tapit and he’s been a bit of a late bloomer. Put it all together here last time, defeating a very good group of maidens. Surely bigger and better things are on the horizon.
    4 – STRATEGIC AKATI (8/1) – A sneaky horse. Drops from NW2X and turns back for this. Late player should add plenty of value with competitive speed figures.
    9 – METALLIC (6/1) – Comes off a nice score at the distance and has been competitive at this level. Camacho rides back.
    2 – 4 – 9

    RACE 6
    ($) 1 – GOIABA (10/1) – Former $300k purchase obviously has had some health issues. But that last race off the layoff was very good and the number came back strong. Camacho returns and this will be one of the best prices you’ll get on his mounts from a strong barn. Value Play.
    4 – LEMON PRINCESS (6/1) – Her late pace numbers are appealing. She fits at the level and just needs to take the next step.
    2 – STAY ANCHORED (6/1) – 2nd at Kee over the turf back in Oct. against tougher. Dismiss the last 2 as they were taken off the turf.
    1 – 4 – 2 – 3

    RACE 7
    12 – BLAME THE MAKERS (4/1) – Really improved in his 2nd start after a brief layoff. From that outside draw and void of speed, he has lots to overcome.
    1 – TENCH (3/1) – Set quick fractions in debut while managing a 2nd place finish. Gallardo will likely have to send from the rail.
    10 – GIO NASTY ONE (15/1) – Figures to improve 2nd time for Bennett after a wide trip sprinting on the turf in opener.
    12 – 1 – 10

    RACE 8
    7 – HEART TO HEART (9/5) – G1 winner gets a favorable pace scenario in a relatively small field. The Tampa turf can be kind to front runners. Expect Leparoux to send today.
    3 – DIVISIDERO (4/1) – Had a wide trip over soft turf at GP going 1 1/8 last time. Should have every opportunity here late.
    4 – QURBAAN (3/1) – Had a ground-saving trip in the Fort Lauderdale last time and one of the most underrated turf riders in Joe Bravo rides back. Needs to take that next step.
    7 – 3 – 4 – 2

    RACE 9
    ($$) 3 – TAPIT’S PRINCESS (8/1) – Daughter of Tapit was impressive in breaking her maiden going 2 turns at GP. She earned a nice figure while being wrapped up at the wire. Worked a bullet the other day for this.
    2 – WINNING ENVELOPE (7/2) – Daughter of More Than Ready has been moving well over the main course here at Tampa in the a.m. Expect her to be on or near the lead as she goes 2 turns in her first start since Sept.
    4 – LADY KATE (6/1) - $485k daughter of Bernardini beat some quality fillies in her debut at GP. Another with a bright future as she tries 2 turns today.
    3 – 2 – 4 – 1

    RACE 10
    2 – GET EXPICIT (9/2) – This daughter of Stormy Atlantic keeps improving and comes off a 2nd place finish in a G2 at CD over a demanding course. Don’t be surprised if she pulls off the upset.
    4 – MONTE CRISTA (12/1) – Expect her to be much sharper in her second start after a layoff. Blinkers added as well.
    9 – GOODYEARFORROSES (IRE) (5/1) – A big question for me. Never like mares to “bounce back” once they tail off, but she’s been working well and new connections have had success off this type of layoff.
    2 – 4 – 9 – 6

    RACE 11
    6 – KENTUCKY WILDCAT (9/2) – 3yo by Tapit out of a Ghostzapper mare ran a deceptively strong race last time at Aqu earning a solid number. Godolphin runner tries 2 turns but you’re getting a square price on an improving horse. The crafty Joe Bravo is in for the mount.
    8 – SO ALIVE (5/1) – Pletcher always the man to beat here at Tampa when it comes to Derby prep races. Son of Super Saver out of a Street Cry mare prepped nicely for this and will be rolling late. Castellano gets the call.
    2 – GOING FOR GOLD (20/1) – Willing to take a shot with a maiden at a price who’s been narrowly beaten at Lrl in a suspect group today. Adds blinkers and could get loose on the lead.
    6 – 8 – 2

    RACE 12
    10 – FUNNY QUESTIONS (5/1) – 2nd off the layoff and cutting back in distance. A winner back in Aug. against better ($20k claimers at AP) at 1 mile. Should see that closing kick in this spot.
    4 – AT THE READY (8/1) – Rounding back into form as evidenced by that rallying 2nd place finish last time at this level. 8-15 in the money over the lawn.
    6 – HUNTSTOWN (4/1) – Veteran campaigner drops to lowest level in quite awhile and has every right to move forward 2nd off the layoff.
    10 – 4 – 6 – 9


    ($$) – Value Plays
    Early Pick 4:
    Race 1) 5.7 / 2.10 / 1.3.4.9.11 / 2.5.6
    Late Pick 5:
    Race 8) 2.3.4.7 / 2.3.4 / 2.4.9 / 2.6.8 / 4.6.10

    BEST OF LUCK!
    @LIGHTNINGJAY_



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