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ARLINGTON "MORNING LINE & COMMENTS" FOR ARLINGTON MILLION DAY - SATURDAY - 8/11/2018

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  • ARLINGTON "MORNING LINE & COMMENTS" FOR ARLINGTON MILLION DAY - SATURDAY - 8/11/2018

    CONSENSUS CHOICE
    AUGUST 11, 2018



    Here are the Stakes races in Morning Line order. The ML can be very useful depending on the Track Morning Line maker. However, unless you handicap the races or have a basis of comparison it can be difficult to use profitability. You do have the actual betting to help guide you. Also some of the wagering platforms give you their selections for free.

    I can no longer give you my Betting Line or Selections (not by my choice). What I can give you are my Comments on the Morning Line choices. Understand that just because a horse does not receive a comment is not a negative and does not lessen his chances of winning. It only means that his odds of winning seem to be in agreement with his Morning Line. REMEMBER THAT THE TOP 3 ML HORSES OR BETTING FAVORITES USUALLY WIN 2/3 OF ALL THE RACES, SO THEY SHOULD ALWAYS BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

    Let me explain my terminology in the Comments column. CC HORSE is the horse I expected to be the top choice but he is not the Morning Lone Choice. While this kind of horse can be a great bet, there are times when he just builds the pot for the ML favorite. $$$ HORSE means I believe this ML Top 4 horse has an excellent chance to win shince he seems to be solidly backed by both the ML and the Pro's. OVERLAY means that this horse is well regarded by the Morning Line but the Crowd will likely overlook him and he may go off at odds higher than he should. VALUE PLAY means I feel this horse is rated too low in the Morning Line. PRICE PLAY is a horse that should exceed there odds and may be worth a small wager and should be an exotics player. LONGSHOT is a horse or horses that are 10/1 or higher in the Morning Line that I believe are "live" and have a good shot at finishing in the money and could win at a big price.

    As always, Exotic wagering is the best way to make a a big score at the track, however it can be an expensive proposition. It can be helpful to find partners to help you share the risk so you can play more combinations which give you a better chance to hit big payoffs. Whether you prefer Horizontal wagers, (DD or Pick-3.4.5.6) or Vertical wagers (Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas or Super Hi-5's), make sure you include both highly regarded horses as well as Longshots to give you the best chance to make "Big" money. The more you follow the crowd, the smaller the payoffs.

    Good Luck!







    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    ARLINGTON RACE 8 - BRUCE D. MEMORIAL $100,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    7 The Tabulator 2 $$$ HORSE
    5 Nobrag Justfact 3 $$$ HORSE
    1 Chief Oakie Dokie 9/2 OVERLAY
    9 Strollin the Bayou 5
    8 Nottoway 10 LONGSHOT
    4 Navy Armed Guard 12 LONGSHOT
    6 Wile E Peyote 12
    2 Sir Anthony 15
    3 P R Radio Star 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    ARLINGTON RACE 9 - SECRETARIAT (G1) $400,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    9 Analyze It 2
    13 Hunting Horn 7/2 $$$ HORSE
    8 Untamed Domain 5 OVERLAY
    2 Platinum Warrior 10
    10 Sniper Kitten 12 LONGSHOT
    12 Lucius Tiberius 12
    7 Captivating Moon 20
    1 Real Story 20
    3 Bandua 20
    4 Carrick 20
    6 Ming 20
    5 Pont Du Gard 30
    11 Dubby Dubbie 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    ARLINGTON RACE 10 - BEVERLY D (G1) $600,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    3 Sistercharlie 9/5
    9 Athena 3
    7 Fourstar Crook 9/2 PRICE PLAY
    4 Dona Bruja 6 VALUE PLAY
    1 Daddys Lil Darling 8
    8 Inflexibility 8
    2 Nyaleti 15
    5 Thais 30
    6 Oh So Terrible 50
    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    ARLINGTON RACE 11 - ARLINGTON MILLION (G1) $1,000,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    11 Oscar Performance 3
    10 Robert Bruce 9/2 OVERLAY
    3 Almanaar 5 PRICE PLAY
    8 Money Multiplier 6
    9 Deauville 6
    2 Spring Quality 8 VALUE PLAY
    4 Divisidero 10
    5 Century Dream 12
    6 Catcho En Die 20
    1 Circus Couture 30
    7 Twenty Four Seven 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    ARLINGTON RACE 12 - PUCKER UP (G3) $100,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    13 Beyond Blame 3
    4 Cosmic Burst 4 OVERLAY
    1 Dark Artist 9/2 OVERLAY
    6 A. A. Azula's Arch 6
    3 Pamina 8
    10 Secret Message 12 LONGSHOT
    12 Smart Shot 15
    7 Madame Milan 20
    8 Deadline 20
    11 Kabella 20
    2 Princess Warrior 30
    5 Diamondcoat 30
    9 In the Mood 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** ************** ****************
    Last edited by Consensus Choice; 08-11-2018, 03:33 AM.
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