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SARATOGA "MORNING LINE AND COMMENTS" FOR SATURDAY - 8/11/2018

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  • SARATOGA "MORNING LINE AND COMMENTS" FOR SATURDAY - 8/11/2018

    CONSENSUS CHOICE
    AUGUST 11, 2018



    Here is the full card in Morning Line order. The ML can be very useful depending on the Track Morning Line maker. However, unless you handicap the races or have a basis of comparison it can be difficult to use profitability. You do have the actual betting to help guide you. Also some of the wagering platforms give you their selections for free.

    I can no longer give you my Betting Line or Selections (not by my choice). What I can give you are my Comments on the Morning Line choices. Understand that just because a horse does not receive a comment is not a negative and does not lessen his chances of winning. It only means that his odds of winning seem to be in agreement with his Morning Line. REMEMBER THAT THE TOP 3 ML HORSES OR BETTING FAVORITES USUALLY WIN 2/3 OF ALL THE RACES, SO THEY SHOULD ALWAYS BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY.

    Let me explain my terminology in the Comments column. CC HORSE is the horse I expected to be the top choice but he is not the Morning Lone Choice. While this kind of horse can be a great bet, there are times when he just builds the pot for the ML favorite. $$$ HORSE means I believe this ML Top 4 horse has an excellent chance to win shince he seems to be solidly backed by both the ML and the Pro's. OVERLAY means that this horse is well regarded by the Morning Line but the Crowd will likely overlook him and he may go off at odds higher than he should. VALUE PLAY means I feel this horse is rated too low in the Morning Line. PRICE PLAY is a horse that should exceed there odds and may be worth a small wager and should be an exotics player. LONGSHOT is a horse or horses that are 10/1 or higher in the Morning Line that I believe are "live" and have a good shot at finishing in the money and could win at a big price.

    As always, Exotic wagering is the best way to make a a big score at the track, however it can be an expensive proposition. It can be helpful to find partners to help you share the risk so you can play more combinations which give you a better chance to hit big payoffs. Whether you prefer Horizontal wagers, (DD or Pick-3.4.5.6) or Vertical wagers (Exactas, Trifectas, Superfectas or Super Hi-5's), make sure you include both highly regarded horses as well as Longshots to give you the best chance to make "Big" money. The more you follow the crowd, the smaller the payoffs.

    Good Luck!






    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 1
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    6 Prognostication 5/2
    1 Lemonist 3 CC HORSE
    8 Gosilently 3
    3 Bootlegger 9/2
    7 Four Knights 8 VALUE PLAY
    5 Hyperlapse 12
    4 Rockin Jo 12
    2 Tizpure 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 2
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    4 Chief Executive 5/2 $$$ HORSE
    8 Exchequer 3
    1A Southern Phantom @ 7/2 $$$ HORSE
    1 Speed App @
    7 Baffin Bay 4 VALUE PLAY
    5 Preacher Marsee 8
    6 Unionizer 10 LONGSHOT
    2 Laughing Fox 12 LONGSHOT
    3 Johny's Bobby 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 3 - ADIRONDACK (G2) $200,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    3 Lyrical Lady 6/5
    5 Virginia Eloise 5/2
    6 Sue's Fortune 4 OVERLAY
    1 Mucho Amor 5
    2 Guacamole 8 VALUE PLAY
    4 Grandma Gertie 15
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 4
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    8 Teachable Moment 5/2
    14 Starting Point 5/2
    3 Opry 7/2 $$$ HORSE
    1 Rock On Kitten @ 9/2 OVERLAY
    1A Speedy Solution @ 9/2 OVERLAY
    2 Winning Factor 5 OVERLAY
    13 Malthael 5
    4 Shootin the Breeze 6
    11 Medina Ridge 8
    12 Noble Nebraskan 10
    9 Ian Glass 12
    6 Majestic Hero 15
    7 Cairo Cat 15
    5 Twelfthofneverland 20
    10 Agitator 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 5
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    12 Payne 8/5
    3 Unlockthepotential 3
    7 Dr. Edgar 7/2 CC HORSE
    14 Gray Sky 4
    5 Greek Alphabet 9/2 OVERLAY
    1 Another 5 OVERLAY
    11 Rapt 6
    8 The J Y 8 VALUE PLAY
    6 Lunaire 8
    13 Fifty 8
    2 Morocco 12
    4 Mesotherm 15
    10 Abatement 15
    9 Clutch Cargo 30 LONGSHOT
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 6
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    7 Empire of War 5/2
    5 Road Home 7/2 CC HORSE
    8 A Thread of Blue 4 OVERLAY
    2 Network Effect 5
    4 Chase and Colorado 6
    9 Americano 8
    6 Derby Date 12 LONGSHOT
    3 Cadron Flats 20
    1 Grassetto 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 7
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    9 Munchkin Money 7/2
    7 Danyelli 7/2
    2 Conquest Tizfire 9/2 OVERLAY
    11 Ultima D 6
    4 Majestic Won 6
    13 Aunt Babe 6
    5 La Naturel 8 VALUE PLAY
    10 First Appeal 8
    8 Sister Sophia 10 LONGSHOT
    12 Queen Mum 10 LONGSHOT
    1 A Great Time 12 LONGSHOT
    3 Designing 15
    6 Violent Times 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 8 - 4STARDAVE (G1) $500,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    1 Weekend Hideaway 3/5
    5 Heart to Heart 2
    7 Yoshida 3 CC HORSE
    4 Made You Look 4 OVERLAY
    2 Delta Prince 4
    6 Voodoo Song 9/2 OVERLAY
    3 Divisidero 8
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 9
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    1 Patternrecognition 9/5 $$$ HORSE
    3 Mask 3
    5 Breaking the Rules 7/2
    2 Phi Beta Express 5
    7 Spikes Shirl 8
    4 Always a Suspect 8
    6 Storm Runner 12
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 10 - LURE STAKES $100,000
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    8 You're to Blame 1/1
    4 Secret Passage 2
    1 Projected 5/2
    3 Inspector Lynley 7/2 CC HORSE
    9 Zennor 4 OVERLAY
    7 Conquest Panthera 5
    5 Mr Cub 6
    6 Forge 8 VALUE PLAY
    2 Blacktype 8
    10 Dalarna 20
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    SARATOGA RACE 11
    PG # Horse ML Odds Betting Odds Comments
    4 Super Mama 2
    12 Hit a Provisional 5/2
    13 Shanghai Dreams 3
    11 Grand Banks 7/2
    14 Sardonyx 9/2
    1 Dancingwthdaffodls 5 CC HORSE
    5 Molly's Nighthawk 6
    7 I Like Your Style 6
    9 Crater Rim 8
    10 Fancycase 10
    3 Adorable Song 12 LONGSHOT
    16 Youth Gone Wild 15
    2 Queens Wild 20
    15 Frederica 20
    6 Zetetic 30
    8 Protect the King 30
    ************ ****************************** *************** **************** **************
    Last edited by Consensus Choice; 1 week ago.
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